Bigger and heavier cars, like SUVs, are harder to electrify and growth in their rising demand may slow down the development of clean and efficient car fleets. While discussions today see significant focus on electric vehicles and fuel economy improvements, the analysis highlights the role of the average size of car fleet. The upcoming World Energy Outlook will focus on this under-appreciated area in the energy debate today, and examines the possible evolution of the global car market, electrification trends, and consumer preferences and provides insights for policy makers. If consumers’ appetite for SUVs continues to grow at a similar pace seen in the last decade, SUVs would add nearly 2 million barrels a day in global oil demand by 2040, offsetting the savings from nearly 150 million electric cars. In fact, SUVs were responsible for all of the 3.3 million barrels a day growth in oil demand from passenger cars between 20, while oil use from other type of cars (excluding SUVs) declined slightly.

As a result, global fuel economy worsened caused in part by the rising SUV demand since the beginning of the decade, even though efficiency improvements in smaller cars saved over 2 million barrels a day, and electric cars displaced less than 100,000 barrels a day. On average, SUVs consume about a quarter more energy than medium-size cars. Today, almost half of all cars sold in the United States and one-third of the cars sold in Europe are SUVs As a consequence, SUVs were the second-largest contributor to the increase in global CO 2 emissions since 2010 after the power sector, but ahead of heavy industry (including iron & steel, cement, aluminium), as well as trucks and aviation. The global fleet of SUVs has seen its emissions growing by nearly 0.55 Gt CO 2 during the last decade to roughly 0.7 Gt CO 2. The impact of its rise on global emissions is nothing short of surprising. Similarly, in Africa, the rapid pace of urbanisation and economic development means that demand for premium and luxury vehicles is relatively strong. In India, sales are currently lower, but consumer preferences are changing as more and more people can afford SUVs. In China, SUVs are considered symbols of wealth and status. Today, almost half of all cars sold in the United States and one-third of the cars sold in Europe are SUVs. The conventional car market has been showing signs of fatigue Around 40% of annual car sales today are SUVs, compared with less than 20% a decade ago. As a result, there are now over 200 million SUVs around the world, up from about 35 million in 2010, accounting for 60% of the increase in the global car fleet since 2010. This dramatic shift towards bigger and heavier cars has led to a doubling of the share of SUVs over the last decade.

These trends have created a narrative of an imminent peak in passenger car oil demand, and related CO 2 emissions, and the beginning of the end for the “ICE age.” As passenger cars consume nearly one-quarter of global oil demand today, does this signal the approaching erosion of a pillar of global oil consumption?Ī more silent structural change may put this conclusion into question: consumers are buying ever larger and less fuel-efficient cars, known as Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs). Data for 2019 points to a continuation of this trend, led by China, where sales in the first half of the year fell nearly 14%, and India where they declined by 10%. Global sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars fell by around 2% to under 87 million in 2018, the first drop since the 2008 recession. Meanwhile, the conventional car market has been showing signs of fatigue, with sales declining in 20, due to slowing economies. Starting from a low base, less than 0.5% of the total car stock, this growth in electric vehicles means that nearly 7% of the car fleet will be electric by 2030. Plans from the top 20 car manufacturers suggest a tenfold increase in annual electric car sales, to 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, from 2 million in 2018. With major automakers announcing new electric car models at a regular pace, there has been growing interest in recent years about the impact of electric vehicles on the overall car market, as well as global oil demand, carbon emissions, and air pollution.Ĭarmakers plan more than 350 electric models by 2025, mostly small-to-medium variants.

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